Evaluation of Nuclear Microreactor Cost-competitiveness in Current Electricity Markets Considering Reactor Cost Uncertainties

TL;DR

This study assesses the cost competitiveness of nuclear microreactors in current markets, accounting for cost uncertainties, and identifies optimal configurations and policy impacts to enhance economic viability.

Contribution

It introduces a novel probabilistic optimization framework combining cost modeling with evolutionary algorithms to evaluate microreactor cost competitiveness under uncertainty.

Findings

Microreactors can be cost-competitive with LCOE between $48.21/MWh and $78.32/MWh.

Production Tax Credit can reduce LCOE by approximately 22-24%.

Overnight capital cost significantly impacts overall cost, more than fuel or O&M uncertainties.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the cost competitiveness of microreactors in today's electricity markets, with a focus on uncertainties in reactor costs. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to optimize key technical parameters, such as reactor capacity, fuel enrichment, tail enrichment, refueling interval, and discharge burnup, to minimize the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Base case results are validated using Simulated Annealing (SA). By incorporating Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for fuel cycle costs, the study identifies optimal configurations under uncertainty. Methodologically, it introduces a novel framework combining probabilistic cost modeling with evolutionary optimization. Results show that microreactors can remain cost-competitive, with LCOEs ranging from \$48.21/MWh to \$78.32/MWh when supported by the Production Tax Credit (PTC). High reactor capacity, low fuel enrichment, moderate tail enrichment and refueling intervals, and high discharge burnup enhance cost efficiency. Among all factors, overnight capital cost (OCC) has the most significant impact on LCOE, while O&M and fuel cost uncertainties have lesser effects. The analysis highlights how energy policies like the PTC can reduce LCOE by 22-24%, improving viability despite cost variability. Compared to conventional nuclear, coal, and renewable sources like offshore wind, hydro, and biomass, optimized microreactors show strong economic potential. This research defines a realistic design space and key trade-offs, offering actionable insights for policymakers, reactor designers, and energy planners aiming to accelerate the deployment of affordable, sustainable microreactors.