Base3: a simple interpolation-based ensemble method for robust dynamic link prediction

TL;DR

Base3 is a simple, interpolation-based ensemble method that combines recurrence, popularity, and co-occurrence signals for robust and practical dynamic link prediction, rivaling complex deep models.

Contribution

It introduces Base3, a lightweight, training-free model that fuses multiple signals for effective temporal link prediction, improving robustness and interpretability.

Findings

Achieves competitive performance on the Temporal Graph Benchmark.

Outperforms state-of-the-art deep models on some datasets.

Excels under challenging negative sampling strategies.

Abstract

Dynamic link prediction remains a central challenge in temporal graph learning, particularly in designing models that are both effective and practical for real-world deployment. Existing approaches often rely on complex neural architectures, which are computationally intensive and difficult to interpret. In this work, we build on the strong recurrence-based foundation of the EdgeBank baseline, by supplementing it with inductive capabilities. We do so by leveraging the predictive power of non-learnable signals from two complementary perspectives: historical edge recurrence, as captured by EdgeBank, and global node popularity, as introduced in the PopTrack model. We propose t-CoMem, a lightweight memory module that tracks temporal co-occurrence patterns and neighborhood activity. Building on this, we introduce Base3, an interpolation-based model that fuses EdgeBank, PopTrack, and t-CoMem into a unified scoring framework. This combination effectively bridges local and global temporal dynamics -- repetition, popularity, and context -- without relying on training. Evaluated on the Temporal Graph Benchmark, Base3 achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art deep models, even outperforming them on some datasets. Importantly, it considerably improves on existing baselines' performance under more realistic and challenging negative sampling strategies -- offering a simple yet robust alternative for temporal graph learning.