Expert Insight-Based Modeling of Non-Kinetic Strategic Deterrence of Rare Earth Supply Disruption:A Simulation-Driven Systematic Framework

TL;DR

This paper develops a simulation framework to model non-kinetic strategic deterrence in rare earth supply disruptions, integrating expert insights and advanced modeling techniques to aid policymakers.

Contribution

It introduces the first unified system for modeling, visualizing, and forecasting non-kinetic deterrence strategies in rare earth supply disruptions.

Findings

Institutional signals can rapidly degrade strategic capabilities.

The framework effectively simulates nonlinear suppression trajectories.

Model is adaptable to various national resource scenarios.

Abstract

This study constructs a quantifiable modelling framework to simulate non-kinetic strategic deterrence pathways in rare earth supply disruption scenarios, based on structured responses from expert interviews led by Dr. Daniel O'Connor, CEO of the Rare Earth Exchange (REE). Focusing on disruption impacts on national security systems, the study proposes four core modelling components: Security Critical Zones (SCZ), Strategic Signal Injection Function (SSIF), System-Capability Migration Function (SCIF), and Policy-Capability Transfer Function (PCTF). The framework integrates parametric ODEs, segmented function modelling, path-overlapping covariance matrices, and LSTM networks to simulate nonlinear suppression trajectories triggered by regime signals. Data is derived from expert interviews and scenario analyses centered on U.S.-China dynamics in ISR, electronic warfare, and rare earth control. Results show institutional signals have strong tempo and path-coupling effects, capable of causing rapid degradation of strategic capabilities. The model is adaptable across national resource frameworks and extendable to AI sandbox engines for situational simulation and counterfactual reasoning. This research introduces the first unified system for modelling, visualizing, and forecasting non-kinetic deterrence, offering methodological support to policymakers and analysts navigating institutionalized strategic competition.