California Crop Yield Benchmark: Combining Satellite Image, Climate, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Data Layers for County-Level Yield Forecasting of Over 70 Crops

TL;DR

This paper introduces a comprehensive dataset and a multi-modal deep learning model for county-level crop yield forecasting in California, integrating satellite, climate, evapotranspiration, and soil data for over 70 crops from 2008 to 2022.

Contribution

It provides a new benchmark dataset combining diverse data sources and develops a novel deep learning approach for accurate, crop-specific yield prediction at the county level.

Findings

Achieved an overall R2 score of 0.76 on unseen test data.

Demonstrated strong predictive performance across diverse California regions.

Established a publicly available dataset and modeling framework for future research.

Abstract

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.