A Bayesian analysis of home advantage in professional squash

TL;DR

This study quantifies the home advantage in professional squash using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, revealing a significant increase in winning margin and probability for players competing in their home country, especially in Egypt.

Contribution

The paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify home advantage effects in professional squash, incorporating player rankings and country-specific factors.

Findings

Home advantage increases winning margin by 0.4 games for men and 0.3 for women.

Home players' win probability rises from 50% to about 58% for men and 56% for women.

Strongest home effects observed in Egypt, with data limitations in other countries.

Abstract

We estimate the effect of playing in one's home country in professional squash using a Bayesian hierarchical model applied to men's and women's Professional Squash Association matches from 2018-2024. The model incorporates players' world rankings and whether they are competing in their home country. Using margin of victory in games as our outcome, we estimate that home advantage adds 0.4 games for men and 0.3 games for women to the expected margin, with standard errors of 0.1. For evenly matched players, this effect corresponds to an increase in win probability from 50% to roughly 58% for men and 56% for women. We estimate particularly strong home effects in Egypt, where many major tournaments are held, though data limitations prevent precise estimation of country-specific effects in many other nations.