Efficient Uncertainty Propagation with Guarantees in Wasserstein Distance

TL;DR

This paper introduces a computationally efficient method for propagating uncertainty through non-linear functions using Wasserstein distance, providing guarantees on the approximation error and applicability to stochastic dynamical systems.

Contribution

The authors develop a novel approach that approximates distributions with discrete supports for tractable pushforward computation, ensuring guaranteed bounds on uncertainty propagation.

Findings

Effective in non-linear and linear stochastic systems

Provides bounds on approximation error for any epsilon

Demonstrates scalability to high-dimensional systems

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the problem of propagating an uncertain distribution by a possibly non-linear function and quantifying the resulting uncertainty. We measure the uncertainty using the Wasserstein distance, and for a given input set of distributions close in the Wasserstein distance, we compute a set of distributions centered at a discrete distribution that is guaranteed to contain the pushforward of any distribution in the input set. Our approach is based on approximating a nominal distribution from the input set to a discrete support distribution for which the exact computation of the pushforward distribution is tractable, thus guaranteeing computational efficiency to our approach. Then, we rely on results from semi-discrete optimal transport and distributional robust optimization to show that for any $\epsilon > 0$ the error introduced by our approach can be made smaller than $\epsilon$. Critically, in the context of dynamical systems, we show how our results allow one to efficiently approximate the distribution of a stochastic dynamical system with a discrete support distribution for a possibly infinite horizon while bounding the resulting approximation error. We empirically investigate the effectiveness of our framework on various benchmarks, including a 10-D non-linear system, showing the effectiveness of our approach in quantifying uncertainty in linear and non-linear stochastic systems.