CrimeMind: Simulating Urban Crime with Multi-Modal LLM Agents

TL;DR

CrimeMind introduces a novel LLM-based agent framework for simulating urban crime, integrating multi-modal urban features and cognitive theories to outperform traditional models in prediction accuracy and scenario analysis.

Contribution

This work pioneers the integration of large language models with agent-based modeling for urban crime simulation, incorporating cognitive theories and multi-modal data processing.

Findings

Outperforms traditional ABMs and deep learning models in crime hotspot prediction.

Achieves up to 24% improvement over the strongest baseline.

Successfully models counterfactual scenarios like policy interventions.

Abstract

Modeling urban crime is an important yet challenging task that requires understanding the subtle visual, social, and cultural cues embedded in urban environments. Previous work has mainly focused on rule-based agent-based modeling (ABM) and deep learning methods. ABMs offer interpretability of internal mechanisms but exhibit limited predictive accuracy. In contrast, deep learning methods are often effective in prediction but are less interpretable and require extensive training data. Moreover, both lines of work lack the cognitive flexibility to adapt to changing environments. Leveraging the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we propose CrimeMind, a novel LLM-driven ABM framework for simulating urban crime within a multi-modal urban context. A key innovation of our design is the integration of the Routine Activity Theory (RAT) into the agentic workflow of CrimeMind, enabling it to process rich multi-modal urban features and reason about criminal behavior. However, RAT requires LLM agents to infer subtle cues in evaluating environmental safety as part of assessing guardianship, which can be challenging for LLMs. To address this, we collect a small-scale human-annotated dataset and align CrimeMind's perception with human judgment via a training-free textual gradient method. Experiments across four major U.S. cities demonstrate that CrimeMind outperforms both traditional ABMs and deep learning baselines in crime hotspot prediction and spatial distribution accuracy, achieving up to a 24% improvement over the strongest baseline. Furthermore, we conduct counterfactual simulations of external incidents and policy interventions and it successfully captures the expected changes in crime patterns, demonstrating its ability to reflect counterfactual scenarios. Overall, CrimeMind enables fine-grained modeling of individual behaviors and facilitates evaluation of real-world interventions.