Fault based recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of large earthquakes (M6.0) in the Corinth Rift, Greece

TL;DR

This study analyzes the recurrence times and occurrence probabilities of large earthquakes (M6.0) in the Corinth Rift, revealing high variability and different recurrence behaviors across fault segments.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed recurrence model analysis for Corinth Rift fault segments, highlighting their diverse seismic behaviors and probability models.

Findings

Recurrence times range from 40 to 1500 years.

Fault segments show three distinct recurrence behavior groups.

Renewal model probabilities vary significantly among segments.

Abstract

The M6.0 earthquakes recurrence times, Tr, exhibit high variability from 40 to 1500 years, with the southern Corinth Rift fault segments reaching values up to 350 years and their antithetic ones ranging from 400 to 1500 years. The fault segments in the Corinth Rift can be divided into three groups, according to their recurrence behaviour, with some of them exhibiting significantly lower renewal model probabilities than the Poisson model, others showing nearly equal probabilities, and one segment where the renewal model probabilities are much higher than the Poisson one.