TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

TL;DR

This paper uses new stellar velocity dispersion measurements from JWST, Keck, and VLT for 8 strong lensing systems to improve cosmological constraints, especially on the Hubble constant, in various cosmological models.

Contribution

It introduces an improved analysis of strong lensing data incorporating new kinematic measurements and refined modeling, providing robust H0 estimates across multiple cosmologies.

Findings

H0 = 71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3} km/s/Mpc in flat ΛCDM

Improved precision on H0 to 4.6% with combined lens samples

Results consistent across different cosmological models and datasets

Abstract

We present cosmological constraints from 8 strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for 5 lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RXJ1131-1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and 4 from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors' mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with $\Omega_{\rm m}$ constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter (CDM), we find $H_0=71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $\Lambda$CDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_{\phi}$CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.