Solar Surface Magnetic Field Simulation from 2010 to 2024 and Anomalous Southern Poleward Flux Transport in Cycle 24

TL;DR

This study presents a continuous simulation of the solar surface magnetic field from 2010 to 2024, revealing the impact of active region emergence patterns on flux transport and polar field evolution, with implications for solar cycle modeling.

Contribution

It introduces a long-term surface flux transport simulation covering solar cycles 24 and 25, highlighting the role of AR emergence timing and active longitudes in magnetic flux transport.

Findings

Reproduces observed magnetic field evolution without radial diffusion or flow variation.

Identifies an anomalous flux transport pattern in the southern hemisphere during cycle 24.

Shows that AR emergence timing influences poleward flux surges and polar field reversal.

Abstract

The solar surface magnetic field is fundamental for modeling the coronal magnetic field, studying the solar dynamo, and predicting solar cycle strength. We perform a continuous simulation of the surface magnetic field from 2010 to 2024, covering solar cycle 24 and the ongoing cycle 25, using the surface flux transport model with assimilated observed active regions (ARs) as the source. The simulation reproduces the evolution of the axial dipole strength, polar field reversal timing, and magnetic butterfly diagram in good agreement with SDO/HMI observations. Notably, these results are achieved without incorporating radial diffusion or cyclic variations in meridional flow speed, suggesting their limited impact. Poleward surges of the following polarity typically dominate throughout the cycle, but in the southern hemisphere during cycle 24, they are limited to a short period from 2011 to 2016. This anomalous pattern arises from intermittent AR emergence, with about 46% of total unsigned flux contributed by ARs emerging during Carrington Rotations 2141-2160 (September 2013 - February 2015). These ARs show a strong active longitude at Carrington longitudes 200-260 degree and a weaker one at 80-100 degree. After 2016, poleward migrations of leading-polarity flux become dominant, despite most ARs following Joy's and Hale's laws. This reversal is likely due to prolonged intervals between AR emergences, which allow leading-polarity flux to distribute across a broad latitude range before cancellation by subsequent ARs. These findings highlight the importance of the temporal interval of AR emergence in driving the flux transport pattern.