Assessing Climate-Driven Mortality Risk: A Stochastic Approach with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel stochastic modeling approach combining distributed lag non-linear models to assess climate-driven mortality risks, enabling detailed projections of future mortality patterns under climate change scenarios.

Contribution

It presents a new integrated model that explicitly incorporates climate effects into mortality risk assessment and offers a calibration method to separate climate-driven from non-climate-driven mortality risks.

Findings

Model effectively captures climate effects on mortality across regions.

Projections indicate increased summer mortality and decreased winter mortality.

Long-term mortality may rise under high emission scenarios.

Abstract

Assessing climate-driven mortality risk has become an emerging area of research in recent decades. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to explicitly incorporate climate-driven effects into both single- and multi-population stochastic mortality models. The new model consists of two components: a stochastic mortality model, and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The first component captures the non-climate long-term trend and volatility in mortality rates. The second component captures non-linear and lagged effects of climate variables on mortality, as well as the impact of heat waves and cold waves across different age groups. For model calibration, we propose a backfitting algorithm that allows us to disentangle the climate-driven mortality risk from the non-climate-driven stochastic mortality risk. We illustrate the effectiveness and superior performance of our model using data from three European regions: Athens, Lisbon, and Rome. Furthermore, we utilize future UTCI data generated from climate models to provide mortality projections into 2045 across these regions under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The projections show a noticeable decrease in winter mortality alongside a rise in summer mortality, driven by a general increase in UTCI over time. Although we expect slightly lower overall mortality in the short term under RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6, a long-term increase in total mortality is anticipated under the RCP8.5 scenario.