Interpretable phenotyping of Heart Failure patients with Dutch discharge letters

TL;DR

This study develops and evaluates interpretable models using discharge letters and structured data to classify heart failure phenotypes, demonstrating high accuracy and clinician-aligned explanations for improved clinical decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces Aug-Linear models that combine high performance with interpretability, validated on real-world hospital data for heart failure phenotyping.

Findings

Discharge letters are highly informative for phenotyping.

Aug-Linear models achieve performance comparable to black-box models.

Clinician-aligned explanations improve trust in model predictions.

Abstract

Objective: Heart failure (HF) patients present with diverse phenotypes affecting treatment and prognosis. This study evaluates models for phenotyping HF patients based on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) classes, using structured and unstructured data, assessing performance and interpretability. Materials and Methods: The study analyzes all HF hospitalizations at both Amsterdam UMC hospitals (AMC and VUmc) from 2015 to 2023 (33,105 hospitalizations, 16,334 patients). Data from AMC were used for model training, and from VUmc for external validation. The dataset was unlabelled and included tabular clinical measurements and discharge letters. Silver labels for LVEF classes were generated by combining diagnosis codes, echocardiography results, and textual mentions. Gold labels were manually annotated for 300 patients for testing. Multiple Transformer-based (black-box) and Aug-Linear (white-box) models were trained and compared with baselines on structured and unstructured data. To evaluate interpretability, two clinicians annotated 20 discharge letters by highlighting information they considered relevant for LVEF classification. These were compared to SHAP and LIME explanations from black-box models and the inherent explanations of Aug-Linear models. Results: BERT-based and Aug-Linear models, using discharge letters alone, achieved the highest classification results (AUC=0.84 for BERT, 0.81 for Aug-Linear on external validation), outperforming baselines. Aug-Linear explanations aligned more closely with clinicians' explanations than post-hoc explanations on black-box models. Conclusions: Discharge letters emerged as the most informative source for phenotyping HF patients. Aug-Linear models matched black-box performance while providing clinician-aligned interpretability, supporting their use in transparent clinical decision-making.