A Time-Scaled ETAS Model for Earthquake Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a time-scaled ETAS model tailored for earthquake forecasting in Nepal, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting earthquake occurrences and aiding early warning systems.

Contribution

The study develops and validates a novel time-scaled ETAS model specifically for Nepal's seismic activity, improving earthquake forecasting accuracy.

Findings

The model accurately forecasts earthquake occurrences in Nepal.

Time-scaling enhances the ETAS model's predictive performance.

The model can support earthquake early warning systems.

Abstract

The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to forecast earthquakes in Nepal. The ETAS model is a statistical model that describes the temporal and spatial patterns of aftershocks following a main shock. A dataset of earthquake occurrences in Nepal from 2000 to 2020 was collected, and this data was used to fit the models showcased in this article. Our results show that the time-scaled ETAS model is able to accurately forecast earthquake occurrences in Nepal, and could be a useful tool for earthquake early warning systems in the region.