Ensemble Modeling of the Solar Wind Flow with Boundary Conditions Governed by Synchronic Photospheric Magnetograms. I. Multi-point Validation in the Inner Heliosphere

TL;DR

This study uses ensemble magnetohydrodynamic simulations driven by synoptic photospheric magnetograms to validate solar wind models against multiple spacecraft observations, aiming to enhance space weather prediction accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces an ensemble modeling approach with boundary conditions from magnetograms and validates it with multi-point spacecraft data, improving understanding of solar wind variability.

Findings

Good agreement with Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter data

Uncertainty in boundary conditions affects simulation outcomes

Potential for improved space weather forecasting

Abstract

The solar wind (SW) is a vital component of space weather, providing a background for solar transients such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and energetic particles propagating toward Earth. Accurate prediction of space weather events requires a precise description and thorough understanding of physical processes occurring in the ambient SW plasma. Ensemble simulations of the three-dimensional SW flow are performed using an empirically-driven magnetohydrodynamic heliosphere model implemented in the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS). The effect of uncertainties in the photospheric boundary conditions on the simulation outcome is investigated. The results are in good overall agreement with the observations from the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, and OMNI data at Earth, specifically during 2020-2021. This makes it possible to shed more light on the properties of the SW propagating through the heliosphere and perspectives for improving space weather forecasts.