Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection

TL;DR

This paper develops a simulation framework to evaluate how China's rare earth export restrictions can strategically deter U.S. military capabilities by modeling supply disruptions and their effects on key defense systems over time.

Contribution

It introduces a novel multi-layer modeling framework integrating graph neural networks and LSTM to assess strategic deterrence via rare earth supply control.

Findings

A ten-year export ban causes significant capability lag in U.S. military systems.

Disruption leads to a 3-5 year technological disconnect and 8-12 year capability lag.

Economic impact averages 35-40 billion USD annually.

Abstract

This study proposes a systematic non-kinetic deterrence path modeling framework based on strategic rare earth supply cut-off, aiming to assess the strategic effects of China's export control policy against the United States at the military system level. The model adopts a four-layer structure of "policy input -- resource node -- equipment system -- capability output" and integrates path dependency modeling, degradation function design, and capability lag prediction mechanisms to form a strategic simulation system. The study incorporates graph neural networks and LSTM-based time series methods to dynamically evaluate the impact of rare earth supply disruption on key U.S. military platforms such as the F-35 fighter, nuclear submarines, and AI combat systems, identifying critical path nodes and strategic timing windows. Results indicate that a ten-year zero-tolerance policy on rare earth exports would lead to a significant technological disconnect between years 3 to 5 and a systemic capability lag between years 8 to 12, with an estimated average annual economic impact of 35 to 40 billion USD. These findings demonstrate that rare earth export cut-offs can serve as a structural strategic deterrent capable of disrupting deployment tempos without direct confrontation. The proposed model provides quantifiable and visualized tools for strategic decision-making and supports national-level security simulations and policy optimization research.