Generalised Time-Series Analysis of Fault Mechanics Using Explainable AI

TL;DR

This paper employs an explainable AI approach using a Time Delay Neural Network to analyze fault development in granite under pressure, revealing distinct phases of fault evolution and predicting stress drops with high accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of an optimized TDNN integrating multiple acoustic emission parameters for detailed fault mechanics analysis in rocks.

Findings

Identified three phases of fault evolution: nucleation, growth, and coalescence.

Accurately predicted timing and magnitude of stress drops across different failure modes.

Demonstrated the effectiveness of explainable AI in fault mechanics analysis.

Abstract

Understanding how faults nucleate and grow is a critical problem in earthquake science and hazard assessment. This study examines fault development in Alzo granite under triaxial pressures ranging from 5 to 40 MPa by applying a Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) to multi-parameter acoustic emission (AE) data. The TDNN integrates waveform-derived attributes, including peak delay and scattering attenuation, with occurrence-based metrics such as time distributions, Gutenberg-Richter b-values, and spatial fractal dimensions, to characterize the transition from distributed microcracking to localised faulting. Optimised via genetic algorithms, the TDNN dynamically weights these parameters, enabling accurate characterisation of fault growth stages. Our results delineate three distinct phases of fault evolution: nucleation of random microcracks indicated by changes in elastic wave scattering, initiation of fault growth reflected in evolving AE spatial and magnitude distributions, and fault coalescence marked by exponential increases in peak delay and b-value shifts. The model predicts the timing and magnitude of stress drops across varying pressures and failure mechanisms, from axial splitting to shear localisation, providing deeper insights into fault mechanics through explainable AI models.