Exploring the limits of strong membership inference attacks on large language models

TL;DR

This paper investigates the effectiveness of strong membership inference attacks on large language models, revealing their limited success and instability, and challenging prior assumptions about LLM privacy vulnerabilities.

Contribution

It scales a strong MIA to large LLMs, demonstrating limited practical effectiveness and revealing instability and complex relationships with privacy metrics.

Findings

Strong MIAs can succeed on large LLMs but with limited effectiveness.

Many MIA decisions are unstable and indistinguishable from random chance.

The relationship between MIA success and privacy metrics is complex.

Abstract

State-of-the-art membership inference attacks (MIAs) typically require training many reference models, making it difficult to scale these attacks to large pre-trained language models (LLMs). As a result, prior research has either relied on weaker attacks that avoid training references (e.g., fine-tuning attacks), or on stronger attacks applied to small models and datasets. However, weaker attacks have been shown to be brittle and insights from strong attacks in simplified settings do not translate to today's LLMs. These challenges prompt an important question: are the limitations observed in prior work due to attack design choices, or are MIAs fundamentally ineffective on LLMs? We address this question by scaling LiRA--one of the strongest MIAs--to GPT-2 architectures ranging from 10M to 1B parameters, training references on over 20B tokens from the C4 dataset. Our results advance the understanding of MIAs on LLMs in four key ways. While (1) strong MIAs can succeed on pre-trained LLMs, (2) their effectiveness, remains limited (e.g., AUC<0.7) in practical settings. (3) Even when strong MIAs achieve better-than-random AUC, aggregate metrics can conceal substantial per-sample MIA decision instability: due to training randomness, many decisions are so unstable that they are statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip. Finally, (4) the relationship between MIA success and related LLM privacy metrics is not as straightforward as prior work has suggested.