In the Network of the Conclave: Social Connections and the Making of a Pope

TL;DR

This paper applies network analysis to the College of Cardinals, revealing how social connections and structural positions influence papal election dynamics, exemplified by Cardinal Prevost's overlooked yet central network role.

Contribution

It introduces a multiplex network approach to analyze papal elections, highlighting the importance of structural metrics in understanding candidate influence beyond traditional punditry.

Findings

Cardinal Prevost was centrally positioned in the Vatican network.

Network metrics reveal overlooked candidates' potential influence.

Structural analysis can predict election outcomes more effectively.

Abstract

This study brings a network perspective to papal elections by mapping the relational architecture of the College of Cardinals. Using publicly available data sources, such as official Vatican directories and episcopal consecration records, we assemble a multiplex network that captures cardinals' co-membership in various collegial bodies of the Vatican and their consecration ties. We then calculate structural metrics to capture three key mechanisms that we suggest have a crucial role in the dynamics of the conclave: status, mediation power, and coalition building. Our descriptive study -- publicly released prior to the May 8, 2025 election of Pope Leo XIV -- shows that Cardinal Robert F. Prevost, largely ignored by pundits, bookmakers, and AI models, held a uniquely advantageous position in the Vatican network, by virtue of being central in multiple respects. Thus, although being considered an underdog by many, the network perspective suggests that Cardinal Prevost was de facto one of the strongest "papabile."