Falling Birthrate and Rising C-section: Post-Pandemic Evidence from New York

TL;DR

This study analyzes New York hospital data from 2012-2022, revealing a persistent decline in birthrate post-pandemic and a potential increase in C-section rates possibly driven by revenue considerations.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence of a sustained decline in birthrate after COVID-19 and explores the economic factors influencing delivery method choices.

Findings

Birthrate declined by 1.11% annually pre-pandemic

Additional 7.61% decline in birthrate with pandemic onset

C-section generates 61% more revenue than vaginal delivery

Abstract

The literature documents the effects of the pandemic on birthrate, birthweight, and pregnancy complications. This study contributes to this growing body of research by examining multiple facets of the phenomenon. Using the 2012-2022 hospital inpatient discharge data of New York, we implemented fixed-effects regression models and reported three key findings. First, birthrate was declining pre-pandemic by 1.11% annually. Second, we documented an additional 7.61% decline in birthrate with the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Notably, birthrate did not return to the pre-pandemic trajectory in subsequent years, indicating a persistent decline. Third, this post-pandemic decline was greater in vaginal delivery, with weak evidence of a drop in C-section. In our sample, C-section generates 61% more revenue than vaginal delivery. This raises the possibility that, in response to declining birthrate, healthcare providers have increased C-section rates to make up for lost revenues. While this hinted at upselling in the delivery room, further research is needed to draw definitive conclusions.