Finding Distributions that Differ, with False Discovery Rate Control

TL;DR

This paper introduces a distribution-free multiple testing method with false discovery rate control for comparing a reference distribution against multiple others, demonstrated through simulations and real datasets.

Contribution

It develops a novel batch conformal p-value approach that ensures exact FDR control under dependence, with applications to real-world data analysis.

Findings

Method achieves FDR control in simulations

Comparable performance to distribution-specific methods

Identifies significant sub-populations in real datasets

Abstract

We consider the problem of comparing a reference distribution with several other distributions. Given a sample from both the reference and the comparison groups, we aim to identify the comparison groups whose distributions differ from that of the reference group. Viewing this as a multiple testing problem, we introduce a methodology that provides exact, distribution-free control of the false discovery rate. To do so, we introduce the concept of batch conformal p-values and demonstrate that they satisfy positive regression dependence across the groups [Benjamini and Yekutieli, 2001], thereby enabling control of the false discovery rate through the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. The proof of positive regression dependence introduces a novel technique for the inductive construction of rank vectors with almost sure dominance under exchangeability. We evaluate the performance of the proposed procedure through simulations, where, despite being distribution-free, in some cases they show performance comparable to methods with knowledge of the data-generating normal distribution; and further have more power than direct approaches based on conformal out-of-distribution detection. Further, we illustrate our methods on a Hepatitis C treatment dataset, where they can identify patient groups with large treatment effects; and on the Current Population Survey dataset, where they can identify sub-population with long work hours.