Can AI Freelancers Compete? Benchmarking Earnings, Reliability, and Task Success at Scale

TL;DR

This paper introduces a scalable benchmark for evaluating large language models as autonomous freelance programmers, measuring their task success and earnings on synthetic economic data tasks.

Contribution

It presents a novel, automated benchmarking framework for assessing LLMs on freelance programming tasks with monetary valuation, enabling scalable performance analysis.

Findings

Claude 3.5 Haiku earns approximately $1.52 million

GPT-4o-mini earns approximately $1.49 million

Models rarely fail completely on tasks

Abstract

This study explores Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents for real-world tasks, including freelance software development. This work presents a new benchmark that evaluates LLMs on freelance programming and data analysis tasks derived from economic data. We construct the benchmark using synthetic tasks created from a Kaggle Freelancer dataset of job postings, with all job prices standardized to USD (median fixed-project price around $250, and an average of $306). Each task is accompanied by structured input-output test cases and an estimated price tag, enabling automated correctness checking and a monetary performance valuation. This approach is inspired by OpenAI's recent SWE-Lancer benchmark (1,400 real Upwork tasks worth $1M total). Still, our framework simplifies evaluation using programmatically testable tasks and predicted price values, making it highly scalable and repeatable. On this benchmark, we evaluate four modern LLMs - Claude 3.5 Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen 2.5, and Mistral. We report each model's accuracy (task success rate and test-case pass rate) and the total "freelance earnings" it achieves (sum of prices of solved tasks). Our results show that Claude 3.5 Haiku performs best, earning approximately $1.52 million USD, followed closely by GPT-4o-mini at $1.49 million, then Qwen 2.5 ($1.33M) and Mistral ($0.70M). We analyze the distribution of errors per task and observe that the strongest models solve the most tasks and rarely fail completely on any project. We discuss the implications of these results for the feasibility of AI as a freelance developer, the advantages and limitations of our automated benchmark approach, and the gap between performance on structured tasks versus the true complexity of real-world freelance jobs.