Low-regret Strategies for Energy Systems Planning in a Highly Uncertain Future

TL;DR

This paper presents a decision-support framework for identifying low-regret strategies in energy system planning under high uncertainty, demonstrated through biomass utilization options in the transition to net-zero energy systems.

Contribution

It introduces an automated framework that evaluates and visualizes low-regret strategies, aiding decision-makers in complex energy transition scenarios.

Findings

Biofuels and chemicals from biomass have the lowest regret across scenarios.

Current biomass use for low-temperature heat results in high regret.

The framework effectively supports decision-making under uncertainty.

Abstract

Large uncertainties in the energy transition urge decision-makers to develop low-regret strategies, i.e., strategies that perform well regardless of how the future unfolds. To address this challenge, we introduce a decision-support framework that identifies low-regret strategies in energy system planning under uncertainty. Our framework (i) automatically identifies strategies, (ii) evaluates their performance in terms of regret, (iii) assesses the key drivers of regret, and (iv) supports the decision process with intuitive decision trees, regret curves and decision maps. We apply the framework to evaluate the optimal use of biomass in the transition to net-zero energy systems, considering all major biomass utilization options: biofuels, biomethane, chemicals, hydrogen, biochar, electricity, and heat. Producing fuels and chemicals from biomass performs best across various decision-making criteria. In contrast, the current use of biomass, mainly for low-temperature heat supply, results in high regret, making it a must-avoid in the energy transition.