Predicting Gas Well Performance with Decline Curve Analysis: A Case Study on Semutang Gas Field

TL;DR

This study applies decline curve analysis to forecast future production and estimate reserves of a gas well in Bangladesh, comparing models to identify the most accurate for reservoir management.

Contribution

It demonstrates the application of multiple decline models to a specific gas field, highlighting the importance of model selection for accurate forecasting.

Findings

Hyperbolic decline model provided the most realistic forecast.

Estimated ultimate recovery varies significantly across models.

Model selection impacts reservoir management decisions.

Abstract

Decline-curve analysis (DCA) is a widely utilized method for production forecasting and estimating remaining reserves in gas reservoir. Based on the assumptions that past production trend can be mathematically characterized and used to predict future performance. It relies on historical production data and assumes that production methods remain unchanged throughout the analysis. This method is particularly valuable due to its accuracy in forecasting and its broad acceptance within the industry. Wells in the same geographical area and producing from similar geological formations often exhibit similar decline curve parameters. This study applies DCA to forecast the future production performance and estimate the ultimate recovery for the Semutang gas field's well 5 in Bangladesh. Using historical production data, decline curves were generated based on exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic model equations. The cumulative production estimations were 11,139.34 MMSCF for the exponential model, 11,620.26 MMSCF for the hyperbolic model, and 14,021.92 MMSCF for the harmonic model. In terms of the well's productive life, the estimates were 335.13 days, 1,152 days, and 22,611 days, respectively. Among these models, the hyperbolic decline provided the most realistic forecast, closely aligning with observed production trend. The study highlights the importance of selecting an appropriate decline model for accurate production forecasting and reserve estimation, which is essential for effective reservoir management and resource optimization.