The Impact of Climatic Factors on Respiratory Pharmaceutical Demand: A Comparison of Forecasting Models for Greece

TL;DR

This study evaluates how climate variability influences respiratory pharmaceutical demand in Greece by comparing forecasting models, highlighting the importance of climate-sensitive variables for resilient healthcare planning.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive comparison of forecasting models incorporating climate data to predict pharmaceutical demand, emphasizing the value of nonlinear and exogenous variable models.

Findings

MBB-RF achieved the best relative error performance.

LSTM captured nonlinear dependencies effectively.

VARX balanced interpretability and accuracy.

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a driver of health-related outcomes, yet its impact on pharmaceutical demand remains largely understudied. As environmental conditions evolve and extreme weather events intensify, anticipating their influence on medical needs is essential for designing resilient healthcare systems. This study examines the relationship between climate variability and the weekly demand for respiratory prescription pharmaceuticals in Greece, based on a dataset spanning seven and a half years (390 weeks). Granger causality spectra are employed to explore potential causal relationships. Following variable selection, four forecasting models are implemented: Prophet, a Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX), Random Forest with Moving Block Bootstrap (MBB-RF), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The MBB-RF model achieves the best performance in relative error metrics while providing robust insights through variable importance rankings. The LSTM model outperforms most metrics, highlighting its ability to capture nonlinear dependencies. The VARX model, which includes Prophet-based exogenous inputs, balances interpretability and accuracy, although it is slightly less competitive in overall predictive performance. These findings underscore the added value of climate-sensitive variables in modeling pharmaceutical demand and provide a data-driven foundation for adaptive strategies in healthcare planning under changing environmental conditions.