How to use score-based diffusion in earth system science: A satellite nowcasting example

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how score-based diffusion models can be adapted for earth science, specifically satellite cloud nowcasting, producing sharper forecasts and enabling ensemble generation, surpassing traditional methods.

Contribution

It introduces and evaluates three types of diffusion models for atmospheric cloud nowcasting, making diffusion techniques more accessible for earth science applications.

Findings

Diffusion models outperform U-Net and persistence in cloud nowcasting.

CorrDiff model achieves the best performance among tested diffusion models.

Diffusion models enable realistic cloud generation and decay, including convective initiation.

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) is used for many earth science applications; however, traditional ML methods trained with squared errors often create blurry forecasts. Diffusion models are an emerging generative ML technique with the ability to produce sharper, more realistic images by learning the underlying data distribution. Diffusion models are becoming more prevalent, yet adapting them for earth science applications can be challenging because most articles focus on theoretical aspects of the approach, rather than making the method widely accessible. This work illustrates score-based diffusion models with a well-known problem in atmospheric science: cloud nowcasting (zero-to-three-hour forecast). After discussing the background and intuition of score-based diffusion models using examples from geostationary satellite infrared imagery, we experiment with three types of diffusion models: a standard score-based diffusion model (Diff); a residual correction diffusion model (CorrDiff); and a latent diffusion model (LDM). Our results show that the diffusion models not only advect existing clouds, but also generate and decay clouds, including convective initiation. A case study qualitatively shows the preservation of high-resolution features longer into the forecast than a conventional U-Net. The best of the three diffusion models tested was the CorrDiff approach, outperforming all other diffusion models, the conventional U-Net, and persistence. The diffusion models also enable out-of-the-box ensemble generation with skillful calibration. By explaining and exploring diffusion models for a common problem and ending with lessons learned from adapting diffusion models for our task, this work provides a starting point for the community to utilize diffusion models for a variety of earth science applications.