The Art of Two-Round Voting

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that two-round voting mechanisms can reliably lead to majority-preferred decisions, are easier to analyze, and outperform one-round voting in AI simulations, offering a practical approach for collective decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces the two-round voting mechanism as a natural, effective alternative to one-round voting, ensuring informed majority decisions and simpler equilibrium analysis.

Findings

Two-round voting aligns with majority preferences.

Equilibria in two-round voting are easier to characterize.

Two-round voting outperforms one-round voting in AI experiments.

Abstract

We study the voting problem with two alternatives where voters' preferences depend on a not-directly-observable state variable. While equilibria in the one-round voting mechanisms lead to a good decision, they are usually hard to compute and follow. We consider the two-round voting mechanism where the first round serves as a polling stage and the winning alternative only depends on the outcome of the second round. We show that the two-round voting mechanism is a powerful tool for making collective decisions. Firstly, every (approximated) equilibrium in the two-round voting mechanisms (asymptotically) leads to the decision preferred by the majority as if the state of the world were revealed to the voters. Moreover, there exist natural equilibria in the two-round game following intuitive behaviors such as informative voting, sincere voting [Austen-Smith and Banks, 1996], and the surprisingly popular strategy [Prelec et al., 2017]. This sharply contrasts with the one-round voting mechanisms in the previous literature, where no simple equilibrium is known. Finally, we show that every equilibrium in the standard one-round majority vote mechanism gives an equilibrium in the two-round mechanisms that is not more complicated than the one-round equilibrium. Therefore, the two-round voting mechanism provides a natural equilibrium in every instance, including those where one-round voting fails to have a natural solution, and it can reach an informed majority decision whenever one-round voting can. Our experiments on generative AI voters also imply that two-round voting leads to the correct outcome more often than one-round voting under some circumstances.