Mathematical Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Utilizing Machine Learning Tools for Assessing the Impact of Climate Lobbying

TL;DR

This paper develops a novel mathematical model using machine learning tools to analyze how lobbying influences climate legislation, validated through a case study of the 2009 U.S. climate bill.

Contribution

It introduces a new compartmental model capturing nonlinear legislative dynamics and lobbying effects, validated with real-world data and stability analysis.

Findings

Model accurately predicts legislative outcomes based on lobbying data

Stability analysis reveals key factors influencing bill passage

Numerical verification aligns with historical voting results

Abstract

Climate policy and legislation has a significant influence on both domestic and global responses to the pressing environmental challenges of our time. The effectiveness of such climate legislation is closely tied to the complex dynamics among elected officials, a dynamic significantly shaped by the relentless efforts of lobbying. This project aims to develop a novel compartmental model to forecast the trajectory of climate legislation within the United States. By understanding the dynamics surrounding floor votes, the ramifications of lobbying, and the flow of campaign donations within the chambers of the U.S. Congress, we aim to validate our model through a comprehensive case study of the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA). Our model adeptly captures the nonlinear dynamics among diverse legislative factions, including centrists, ardent supporters, and vocal opponents of the bill, culminating in a rich dynamics of final voting outcomes. We conduct a stability analysis of the model, estimating parameters from public lobbying records and a robust body of existing literature. The numerical verification against the pivotal 2009 ACESA vote, alongside contemporary research, underscores the models promising potential as a tool to understand the dynamics of climate lobbying. We also analyse the pathways of the model that aims to guide future legislative endeavors in the pursuit of effective climate action.