Optimizing Urban Critical Green Space Development Using Machine Learning

TL;DR

This paper introduces a machine learning-based framework for prioritizing urban green space development in Tehran, integrating socio-economic, environmental, and sensitivity data to optimize microclimate improvements.

Contribution

The study develops a novel framework combining diverse data sources and machine learning models to identify critical areas for green space development in urban environments.

Findings

RF achieved over 94% accuracy in vegetation classification

Green roof implementation reduced air temperature by up to 0.67°C

Feature importance highlighted land surface temperature and sensitive population as key factors.

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework for prioritizing urban green space development in Tehran using diverse socio-economic, environmental, and sensitivity indices. The indices were derived from various sources including Google Earth Engine, air pollution measurements, municipal reports and the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model was used to estimate the air temperature at a 1 km resolution due to insufficient meteorological stations, yielding RMSE and MAE values of 0.96{\deg}C and 0.92{\deg}C, respectively. After data preparation, several machine learning models were used for binary vegetation cover classification including XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest (RF) and Extra Trees. RF achieved the highest performance, exceeding 94% in Overall Accuracy, Recall, and F1-score. Then, the probability of areas lacking vegetation cover was assessed using socio-economic, environmental and sensitivity indices. This resulted in the RF generating an urban green space development prioritization map. Feature Importance Analysis revealed that the most significant indices were nightly land surface temperature (LST) and sensitive population. Finally, the framework performance was validated through microclimate simulation to assess the critical areas after and before the green space development by green roofs. The simulation demonstrated reducing air temperature by up to 0.67{\deg}C after utilizing the green roof technology in critical areas. As a result, this framework provides a valuable tool for urban planners to develop green spaces.