Investigation of possible precursors of solar flares in the active region 12230 On December 9, 2014

TL;DR

This study analyzes the magnetic and radiation dynamics of active region 12230 before a series of homologous solar flares, identifying specific chromospheric and magnetic flux changes as potential precursors to flare activity.

Contribution

It provides a systematic analysis of the evolution of AR 12230 over several days, highlighting specific observable precursors to flare series, and emphasizes the importance of new synoptic observation methods.

Findings

Increase in chromospheric radiation as a precursor

Magnetic flux emergence linked to flare onset

Potential for improved flare prediction methods

Abstract

The question of the nature of precursors of solar flares, as well as their relationship with subsequent flares, still has no unambiguous answer. This is due, in particular, to the lack of systematic statistical work, the relative incompleteness (in isolation from the context of the development of the entire active region) of studies of individual events and the ambiguity of the term 'precursor' itself. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of the NOAA 12230 active region (AR), in which a series of homologous flares (C5-C9) occurred on December 9, 2014 within 12 hours, with an average frequency of about 2 hours. This AR was characterized by a rapid increase in flare activity followed by a rapid decay, which can be considered as a good example for studying potential precursors of flare series. We investigated the evolution of AR 12230 over a relatively long period (several days) and its transition from the 'no-flare' state to the flare-active regime. For this purpose, we study the magnetic field dynamics using SDO/HMI vector magnetograms, UV-EUV images based on SDO/AIA data, and X-ray observations from GOES/XRS and RHESSI data. We conclude that the significant increase in the chromospheric radiation variations against the background of a small flux of soft X-ray and UV emission from the corona observed on December 8, 2014, together with the magnetic flux emergence, can be considered as a precursor to a series of flares. The results show the importance and prospects of applying new methods of synoptic observations of the Sun in the context of collecting statistics ("history") of the AR energy release in different ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum.