Predictive Digital Twins with Quantified Uncertainty for Patient-Specific Decision Making in Oncology

TL;DR

This paper presents a scalable, patient-specific digital twin framework for oncology that integrates imaging data with mechanistic tumor models, quantifies uncertainty, and supports personalized decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces an end-to-end methodology combining data assimilation, mechanistic modeling, and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for personalized tumor progression prediction.

Findings

Validated on synthetic data with controlled noise and sampling

Demonstrated clinical relevance with real patient data

Enabled optimal imaging schedule design for better predictions

Abstract

Quantifying the uncertainty in predictive models is critical for establishing trust and enabling risk-informed decision making for personalized medicine. In contrast to one-size-fits-all approaches that seek to mitigate risk at the population level, digital twins enable personalized modeling thereby potentially improving individual patient outcomes. Realizing digital twins in biomedicine requires scalable and efficient methods to integrate patient data with mechanistic models of disease progression. This study develops an end-to-end data-to-decisions methodology that combines longitudinal non-invasive imaging data with mechanistic models to estimate and predict spatiotemporal tumor progression accounting for patient-specific anatomy. Through the solution of a statistical inverse problem, imaging data inform the spatially varying parameters of a reaction-diffusion model of tumor progression. An efficient parallel implementation of the forward model coupled with a scalable approximation of the Bayesian posterior distribution enables rigorous, but tractable, quantification of uncertainty due to the sparse, noisy measurements. The methodology is verified on a virtual patient with synthetic data to control for model inadequacy, noise level, and the frequency of data collection. The application to decision-making is illustrated by evaluating the importance of imaging frequency and formulating an optimal experimental design question. The clinical relevance is demonstrated through a model validation study on a cohort of patients with publicly available longitudinal imaging data.