Preventing SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events with antiviral intranasal sprays

TL;DR

This study uses mathematical models to evaluate how intranasal antiviral sprays can prevent or reduce SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events, highlighting their potential as a supplementary public health tool.

Contribution

It provides the first quantitative analysis of intranasal sprays' effectiveness in controlling SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events using real outbreak case studies.

Findings

Prophylactic sprays can reduce infections by over 90% with >65% coverage in cruise ship scenarios.

Early spray use can halve individual infection risk and reduce severe cases.

Effectiveness depends on timely deployment and coverage, especially in short-duration events.

Abstract

Superspreading events are known to disproportionally contribute to onwards transmission of epidemic and pandemic viruses. Preventing infections at a small number of high-transmission settings is therefore an attractive public health goal. Here, we use deterministic and stochastic mathematical modelling to quantify the impact of intranasal sprays in containing outbreaks at a known superspreading event (the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 outbreak at the Diamond Princess cruise ship) and a conference event that led to extensive transmission. We find that in the Diamond Princess cruise ship case study, there exists a 7-14-day window of opportunity for widespread prophylactic spray usage to significantly impact the number of infections averted. Given an immediate response to a known SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, alongside testing and social distancing measures, prophylactic efficacy and coverage greater than 65% could reduce the average number of infections by over 90%. In the conference case study, in the absence of additional public health interventions, analyses suggest much higher prophylactic efficacies and coverages are required to achieve a similar outcome. However, prophylactic use can half an individual's probability of being infected, and significantly reduce the probability of developing a severe infection. These results suggest that at a known potential superspreading event, early use of intranasal sprays can complement quarantining measures and significantly suppress a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, even at suboptimal coverage. At a potential superspreading event of short duration, intranasal sprays can reduce individuals' risk of infection, but cannot prevent all infections or onwards community transmission.