An Optimized Evacuation Plan for an Active-Shooter Situation Constrained by Network Capacity

TL;DR

This paper presents an optimized evacuation routing algorithm for active-shooter scenarios that considers network capacity constraints, significantly reducing casualties and crowding during evacuations.

Contribution

The study introduces a multi-route routing algorithm that accounts for route capacity, improving safety and efficiency over previous methods.

Findings

Reduced total casualties by over 34% compared to previous algorithms.

Achieved approximately 50% reduction in crowding at bottleneck nodes.

Enhanced evacuation safety by providing multiple optimal routes considering capacity constraints.

Abstract

A total of more than 3400 public shootings have occurred in the United States between 2016 and 2022. Among these, 25.1% of them took place in an educational institution, 29.4% at the workplace including office buildings, 19.6% in retail store locations, and 13.4% in restaurants and bars. During these critical scenarios, making the right decisions while evacuating can make the difference between life and death. However, emergency evacuation is intensely stressful, which along with the lack of verifiable real-time information may lead to fatal incorrect decisions. To tackle this problem, we developed a multi-route routing optimization algorithm that determines multiple optimal safe routes for each evacuee while accounting for available capacity along the route, thus reducing the threat of crowding and bottlenecking. Overall, our algorithm reduces the total casualties by 34.16% and 53.3%, compared to our previous routing algorithm without capacity constraints and an expert-advised routing strategy respectively. Further, our approach to reduce crowding resulted in an approximate 50% reduction in occupancy in key bottlenecking nodes compared to both of the other evacuation algorithms.