A Novel Framework for Significant Wave Height Prediction based on Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network

TL;DR

This paper introduces AFE-TFNet, a novel adaptive time-frequency network that combines wavelet and Fourier transforms with deep learning to improve significant wave height prediction accuracy while avoiding data leakage.

Contribution

The paper proposes a new encoder-decoder framework that integrates multi-scale frequency analysis and feature fusion to enhance wave height forecasting accuracy.

Findings

AFE-TFNet outperforms benchmark methods in accuracy.

Feature extraction significantly improves predictions.

DHSEW enhances medium- and long-term forecast accuracy.

Abstract

Precise forecasting of significant wave height (Hs) is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy. The challenges in predicting Hs arise from its non-linear and non-stationary characteristics. The combination of decomposition preprocessing and machine learning models have demonstrated significant effectiveness in Hs prediction by extracting data features. However, decomposing the unknown data in the test set can lead to data leakage issues. To simultaneously achieve data feature extraction and prevent data leakage, a novel Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network (AFE-TFNet) is proposed to improve prediction accuracy and stability. It is encoder-decoder rolling framework. The encoder consists of two stages: feature extraction and feature fusion. In the feature extraction stage, global and local frequency domain features are extracted by combining Wavelet Transform (WT) and Fourier Transform (FT), and multi-scale frequency analysis is performed using Inception blocks. In the feature fusion stage, time-domain and frequency-domain features are integrated through dominant harmonic sequence energy weighting (DHSEW). The decoder employed an advanced long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Hourly measured wind speed (Ws), dominant wave period (DPD), average wave period (APD) and Hs from three stations are used as the dataset, and the four metrics are employed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Results show that AFE-TFNet significantly outperforms benchmark methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Feature extraction can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. DHSEW has substantially increased the accuracy of medium-term to long-term forecasting. The prediction accuracy of AFE-TFNet does not demonstrate significant variability with changes of rolling time window size. Overall, AFE-TFNet shows strong potential for handling complex signal forecasting.