Predictive processing frameworks for perception can explain recent drone sightings in the United States

TL;DR

This paper uses predictive processing theory to explain why people in WEIRD societies might misperceive sky lights as threatening objects, emphasizing the role of perceptual priors and societal factors.

Contribution

It applies predictive processing frameworks to understand sky-related misperceptions and highlights the influence of societal and educational factors on perception accuracy.

Findings

Skyborne stimuli are hard to update beliefs about due to their sparse properties.

Humans may have evolved to find sky contents deeply meaningful.

Distrust in scientific institutions may influence perception and belief formation.

Abstract

We draw on the predictive processing theory of perception to explain why healthy, intelligent, honest, and psychologically normal people might easily misperceive lights in the sky as threatening or extraordinary objects, especially in the context of WEIRD (western, educated, industrial, rich, and democratic) societies. We argue that the uniquely sparse properties of skyborne and celestial stimuli make it difficult for an observer to update prior beliefs, which can be easily fit to observed lights. Moreover, we hypothesize that humans have likely evolved to perceive the sky and its perceived contents as deeply meaningful. Finally, we briefly discuss the possible role of generalized distrust in scientific institutions and ultimately argue for the importance of astronomy education for producing a society with prior beliefs that support veridical perception.