Applications of higher order Markov models and Pressure Index to strategize controlled run chases in Twenty20 cricket

TL;DR

This paper analyzes successful run chase strategies in Twenty20 cricket using higher order Markov models and Pressure Index, providing insights to optimize team performance under resource constraints.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of higher order Markov chains combined with Pressure Index analysis to develop effective run chase strategies in Twenty20 cricket.

Findings

Successful run chases maintain Pressure Index between 0.5 and 3.5.

Strategies identified over 16 years from 6537 matches improve chase success.

Early reduction of Pressure Index enhances winning probability.

Abstract

In limited overs cricket, the team batting first posts a target score for the team batting second to achieve in order to win the match. The team batting second is constrained by decreasing resources in terms of number of balls left and number of wickets in hand in the process of reaching the target as the second innings progresses. The Pressure Index, a measure created by researchers in the past, serves as a tool for quantifying the level of pressure that a team batting second encounters in limited overs cricket. Through a ball-by-ball analysis of the second innings, it reveals how effectively the team batting second in a limited-over game proceeds towards their target. This research employs higher order Markov chains to examine the strategies employed by successful teams during run chases in Twenty20 matches. By studying the trends in successful run chases spanning over 16 years and utilizing a significant dataset of 6537 Twenty20 matches, specific strategies are identified. Consequently, an efficient approach to successful run chases in Twenty20 cricket is formulated, effectively limiting the Pressure Index to [0.5, 3.5] or even further down under 0.5 as early as possible. The innovative methodology adopted in this research offers valuable insights for cricket teams looking to enhance their performance in run chases.