Classifying and characterizing the evolution of minimum orbit intersection distance for near-Earth asteroids

TL;DR

This study analyzes the long-term evolution of minimum orbit intersection distances (MOIDs) for near-Earth asteroids, proposing a new classification index and methods for rapid impact risk assessment over 200 years.

Contribution

Introduces the MOID Evolution Index (MEI) and a classification scheme for NEAs based on MOID variations, enhancing impact risk screening and orbit analysis.

Findings

MOID relative to the Earth-Moon barycenter is a better impact predictor.

Linear fitting effectively estimates MOID evolution for most NEAs.

A comprehensive database supports impact risk assessment and orbital analysis.

Abstract

In this paper, the minimum orbit intersection distances (MOIDs) of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) over the next 200 years were computed and analyzed in detail. It was shown that the MOID of a NEA relative to the Earth-Moon barycenter (EMB) is usually a superior metric for predicting a potential impact than that relative to the Earth. Subsequently, a novel MOID Evolution Index (MEI) spanning from 0.0 to 9.9 was proposed and the orbits of NEAs are classified into 100 distinct categories by considering the variations of the MOID over time, which is useful for quickly screening and prioritizing hazardous asteroids for future research. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that a linear fitting to the MOID evolution provides a simple yet valid approach for most of the NEAs, which is useful for quickly estimating the MOID value without the need to perform an orbit propagation. As a result, a scheme with several parameters was proposed to characterize the MOID variations as well as the relative position information of the critical points along the orbits associated with the minimum distances. A database incorporating these parameters and the MEI values was therefore established for the cataloged NEAs, enabling the derivation of statistically constrained upper bounds for secular MOID drift rate as function of the semi-major axes. Finally, some special orbital configurations and dynamical mechanisms that may lead to a large deviation from the linear fit or multiple orbit crossings were also investigated, indicating the intricate nature in the patterns of MOID evolution for some NEAs.