Bayesian non-parametric survival estimation: stochastic hyperparameter sequences and distribution splicing

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian non-parametric framework for survival analysis that incorporates stochastic hyperparameters and distribution splicing, enabling flexible modeling of time-to-event data with theoretical guarantees and efficient simulation methods.

Contribution

It develops a novel Bayesian non-parametric model using stochastic hyperparameters and distribution splicing, with theoretical asymptotic results and practical simulation algorithms.

Findings

Bayesian consistency and Bernstein--von Mises theorems established.

Efficient simulation algorithm for Beta Lévy process paths provided.

Application to non-parametric spliced models for improved tail and body distribution fitting.

Abstract

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for instance, when considering empirical Bayes techniques or dynamic expert information. In this context, a natural stochastic class for studying the cumulative hazard function are conditionally inhomogeneous independent increment processes with non-decreasing sample paths, also known as mixed time-inhomogeneous subordinators or mixed non-decreasing additive processes. The asymptotic behaviour is studied by showing that Bayesian consistency and Bernstein--von~Mises theorems may be recovered under suitable conditions on the asymptotic negligibility of the stochastic prior sequences. The non-asymptotic behaviour of the posterior is also considered. Namely, upon conditioning, an efficient and exact simulation algorithm for the paths of the Beta L\'evy process is provided. As a natural application, it is shown how the model can provide an appropriate definition of non-parametric spliced models. Spliced models target data where an accurate global description of both the body and tail of the distribution is desirable. The Bayesian non-parametric nature of the proposed estimators can offer conceptual and numerical alternatives to their parametric counterparts.