Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Marriage Agency Platform: 2014--2025

TL;DR

This study uses detailed data from Japan's largest marriage platform to nonparametrically estimate how matching efficiency and elasticity have evolved from 2014 to 2025, revealing significant improvements due to digital intermediation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel nonparametric method to estimate time-varying matching functions and elasticities using granular platform data, highlighting digital transformation effects.

Findings

Matching efficiency increased threefold over the period.

Digital intermediation significantly improved partner search efficiency.

Behavioral granularity of data provides new insights into marriage market dynamics.

Abstract

This paper examines monthly matching efficiency in the Japanese marriage market using novel data from IBJ, the country's largest structured matching platform. Unlike administrative or dating app data, IBJ provides full search, dating, and matching logs based on verified profiles and confirmed engagements. Users are highly selected into serious marriage search via costly screening. Covering 3.3% of national marriages annually, the data offer rare behavioral granularity. Using a nonparametric approach, I estimate time-varying matching functions and elasticities. Efficiency rises threefold over time, illustrating how digital intermediation transforms partner search in modern marriage markets.