Out of the Loop Again: How Dangerous is Weaponizing Automated Nuclear Systems?

TL;DR

This paper examines the potential risks and credibility of automated nuclear systems, suggesting that AI integration could make nuclear threats more believable, which raises concerns about escalation and control.

Contribution

It provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence showing that AI-enabled automated nuclear threats may enhance credibility, impacting coercive bargaining and nuclear risk management.

Findings

AI-backed nuclear threats are perceived as more credible in certain scenarios.

Automated systems reduce human control, potentially increasing escalation risks.

Survey results support the credibility advantage of AI-integrated nuclear threats.

Abstract

Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion, and, if so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? While prominent scholars like Thomas Schelling argue that nuclear brinkmanship, or the manipulation of nuclear risk, can effectively coerce adversaries, others contend nuclear weapons are not effective tools of coercion, especially coercion designed to achieve offensive and revisionist objectives. Simultaneously, there is broad debate about the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) into military systems, especially nuclear command and control. We develop a theoretical argument that explicit nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear launch systems are potentially more credible compared to ambiguous nuclear threats or explicit nuclear threats implemented via non-automated means. By reducing human control over nuclear use, leaders can more effectively tie their hands and thus signal resolve. While automated nuclear weapons launch systems may seem like something out of science fiction, the Soviet Union deployed such a system during the Cold War and the technology necessary to automate the use of force has developed considerably in recent years due to advances in AI. Preregistered survey experiments on an elite sample of United Kingdom Members of Parliament and two public samples of UK citizens provide support for these expectations, showing that, in a limited set of circumstances, nuclear threats backed by AI integration have credibility advantages, no matter how dangerous they may be. Our findings contribute to the literatures on coercive bargaining, weapons of mass destruction, and emerging technology.