Preliminary Analysis into the Feasibility of Missions to Asteroid 2024 YR$_4$

TL;DR

This paper assesses the feasibility of various space missions to asteroid 2024 YR4, highlighting potential launch windows, mission types, and the asteroid's threat level, using preliminary trajectory software and reference missions.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of mission options to asteroid 2024 YR4, including flybys, sample returns, and rendezvous, based on trajectory modeling and mission planning software.

Findings

Multiple launch windows available throughout 2028.

Sample return missions are feasible within this period.

Rendezvous missions require launches in late 2028 or early 2029.

Abstract

Recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR$_4$ has an orbital period of almost exactly 4 years, a descending node located almost exactly 1 au from the Sun, with a perihelion slightly less than that. Its combination of semi-major axis and perihelion renders it a 'Potentially Hazardous Object' (PHO) in the Apollo class. It now has a low chance of colliding with the Earth on 22 December 2032, yet there is the potential for many further close encounters with Earth into the distant future. This paper investigates the feasibility of missions to this object in the short term, up to and including its close encounter in 2032, and exploits the preliminary mission design software known as 'Optimum Interplanetary Trajectory Software' (OITS). Many flyby opportunities are found with launch windows virtually throughout 2028. Sample Returns are also eminently feasible over this period. Rendezvous missions with 'New Horizons' spacecraft (adopted as a convenient reference mission) are available, although these require launches around late 2028 and early 2029, and with much longer flight durations. In summary it is found that 2024 YR$_4$ represents an 'opportunity rich environment' and bodes well for any future attempts by humanity to either examine this object close up, or even to deflect it if necessary.