Modelling Regional Solar Photovoltaic Capacity in Great Britain

TL;DR

This paper presents a regional PV capacity model for Great Britain that explains 89% of capacity variation, aiding grid planning and addressing connection delays through disaggregation, benchmarking, and forecasting.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel model estimating regional PV capacity at NUTS 3 level, supporting grid reforms and strategic planning with high accuracy.

Findings

Model explains 89% of capacity variation

Artificial surfaces and agricultural areas are key factors

Supports grid planning and capacity forecasting

Abstract

Great Britain aims to meet growing electricity demand and achieve a fully decarbonised grid by 2035, targeting 70 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. However, grid constraints and connection delays hinder solar integration. To address these integration challenges, various connection reform processes and policies are being developed [1]. This study supports the connection reforms with a model that estimates regional PV capacity at the NUTS 3 level, explaining 89% of the variation in capacity, with a mean absolute error of 20 MW and a national mean absolute percentage error of 5.4%. Artificial surfaces and agricultural areas are identified as key factors in deployment. The model has three primary applications: disaggregating national PV capacity into regional capacity, benchmarking regional PV deployment between different regions, and forecasting future PV capacity distribution. These applications support grid operators in generation monitoring and strategic grid planning by identifying regions where capacity is likely to be concentrated. This can address grid connection delays, plan network expansions, and resolve land-use conflicts.