Social Dynamics: Parameter Estimate

TL;DR

This paper models U.S. social dynamics using harmonic oscillations to estimate parameters influencing presidential approval and partisanship, providing insights into social forces and their effects on public opinion fluctuations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of social harmonic oscillation models to estimate social parameters from survey data, linking social forces to observable political variables.

Findings

Estimated parameters of social oscillations for approval and partisanship.

Identified social forces influencing approval fluctuations.

Provided a new perspective on social dynamics in political contexts.

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to estimate some parameters of simple social harmonic oscillations modelling U.S. Presidential Approval and Macropartisanship. The harmonic oscillations are simplest solutions of equations of the deterministic social dynamics (Zhdanov M., 2024), relating social bodies positions in the Bayesian space of assessments to noncoercive driving forces acting on these social bodies. In some limits, such as individuals assessing each other, the space may be reduced to just sets of scores, ratings, or indexes used to measure social variables like rates of presidential approval or consumer sentiments. Thereby, relations are established between forces of social attraction and elasticity, considered in the presented paper, and assessments of social bodies including individuals, by other social bodies. The results are applied to estimate parameters of social bodies and their motions from survey data on Presidential Approval, U.S. Senator Approval, and Macropartisanship and provide one more perspective on some well-known issues like what moves macropartisanship and why presidential approval fluctuates.