Breaking the Balance: Asymmetric Negative Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

TL;DR

The paper analyzes how negative voting attitudes shifted in the 2020 US presidential election, revealing increased asymmetry with Democrats and Independents more negatively inclined towards Trump, unlike in 2016.

Contribution

It uncovers the emergence of asymmetric negative voting in 2020, contrasting with the symmetric patterns observed in 2016, highlighting the impact of current events on voter hostility.

Findings

In 2020, Democrats and Independents showed increased negative voting against Trump.

Republicans expressed less hostility towards Biden in 2020 than Democrats did towards Clinton in 2016.

Asymmetric negative voting disrupted traditional patterns of voter hostility.

Abstract

While voters from opposing parties have traditionally exhibited symmetric levels of hostility toward out-party candidates, our analysis of the 2016 and 2020 Nationscape data reveals a notable departure from this pattern. In 2016, negative voting was relatively balanced, with similar levels of hostility directed at Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. However, by 2020, asymmetric negative voting had emerged. As an incumbent seeking re-election amid a rapidly declining economy, the COVID-19 pandemic, and widespread uncertainty, Trump faced heightened negative perceptions fueled by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, race relations, the pandemic, and his leadership style. These factors galvanized younger, educated Democrats and Independents to vote against him in unprecedented numbers. In contrast, Republicans expressed less animosity toward Biden in 2020 than they had toward Clinton in 2016. This shift disrupted the balance in the typical pattern of symmetric negative voting.