Resident Turnover and Community Satisfaction in Active Lifestyle Communities

TL;DR

This study examines resident turnover and satisfaction in an active lifestyle community, revealing complex patterns influenced by life transitions, market cycles, and individual predictors, with implications for community management and housing policies.

Contribution

It provides a detailed longitudinal analysis of resident tenure and satisfaction, integrating survival analysis, machine learning, and hedonic pricing to uncover key factors and dynamics.

Findings

High satisfaction levels (93%) maintained over time.

Median tenure declined from 13 to 11 years post-COVID.

Departure risk peaks at specific life transition years.

Abstract

An analysis of Tellico Village, a non-age-restricted active lifestyle community, reveals complex patterns in resident tenure and satisfaction. Longitudinal surveys (2018-2024) and property records show consistently high satisfaction levels (93%), yet a decline in median tenure from 13 years pre-COVID to 11 years post-COVID (p < 0.001), reflecting a broader nationwide trend in homeownership duration. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis identifies departure risk peaks at years 3, 5, 7, 11, 16, 22, and 26, corresponding to life transitions and market cycles. Satisfaction follows a U-shaped trajectory, lowest between years 6-9 (3-12). Key predictors include financial attitudes, recreational engagement, and openness to growth. While aggregate willingness to pay higher POA fees strongly correlates with satisfaction, explaining 94% of the variance, this relationship weakens at the neighborhood (44%) and household (5%) levels. Machine learning models - including Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, and XGBoost - and hedonic price analysis provided limited predictive power, suggesting the influence of unmeasured variables. The study advances understanding of housing tenure dynamics in lifestyle communities while highlighting the need for more sophisticated longitudinal tracking and instrumental variable approaches.