Model-free system identification of surface ships in waves via Hankel dynamic mode decomposition with control

TL;DR

This paper presents a data-driven, model-free approach using Hankel-DMDc and Bayesian Hankel-DMDc for identifying and predicting ship motions in irregular waves, demonstrating robustness and efficiency in severe sea conditions.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel Bayesian extension of Hankel-DMDc for ship system identification, incorporating uncertainty quantification and improving prediction accuracy in complex wave environments.

Findings

Effective identification of ship dynamics in severe sea states

High computational efficiency of the proposed methods

Accurate motion prediction over multiple wave encounters

Abstract

This study introduces and compares the Hankel dynamic mode decomposition with control (Hankel-DMDc) and a novel Bayesian extension of Hankel-DMDc as model-free (i.e., data-driven and equation-free) approaches for system identification and prediction of free-running ship motions in irregular waves. The proposed DMDc methods create a reduced-order model using limited data from the system state and incoming wave elevation histories, with the latter and rudder angle serving as forcing inputs. The inclusion of delayed states of the system as additional dimensions per the Hankel-DMDc improves the representation of the underlying non-linear dynamics of the system by DMD. The approaches are statistically assessed using data from free-running simulations of a 5415M hull's course-keeping in irregular beam-quartering waves at sea state 7, a highly severe condition characterized by nonlinear responses near roll-resonance. The results demonstrate robust performance and remarkable computational efficiency. The results indicate that the proposed methods effectively identify the dynamic system in analysis. Furthermore, the Bayesian formulation incorporates uncertainty quantification and enhances prediction accuracy. Ship motions are predicted with good agreement with test data over a 15 encounter waves observation window. No significant accuracy degradation is noted along the test sequences, suggesting the method can support accurate and efficient maritime design and operational planning.