Forecasting and Analysis of Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Storms

TL;DR

This paper presents a real-time forecasting system for Solar Energetic Particle events using electron measurements, providing alerts and analyzing warning times over recent solar cycle data.

Contribution

It introduces the HESPERIA REleASE forecasting scheme and alert system, enhancing real-time SEP event prediction and impact notification capabilities.

Findings

Successful forecasting of major SEP events over 2.5 years

Analysis of advance warning times for solar cycle 25

Implementation of real-time alert notification system

Abstract

Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) with energies ranging from tens of keV to a few GeV, are a significant component in the description of the space environment. In this work, the HESPERIA REleASE product is emphasized, which, based on the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme, generates real-time predictions of the proton flux (30-50 MeV) at L1, making use of relativistic and near-relativistic electron measurements by the SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM experiments, respectively. The HESPERIA REleASE Alert is a notification system based on the forecasts produced by the HESPERIA REleASE product and informs about the expected radiation impact in real-time using an illustration and a distribution system for registered users. We also present and discuss the Advance Warning Times derived for the compiled list of major SEP events successfully forecasted over the last 2.5 years dur-ing solar cycle 25 by HESPERIA REleASE and recent developments.