Seismic regularity coefficient changes precede stronger earthquakes in Santorini swarm

TL;DR

This study identifies that characteristic changes in seismic regularity coefficients can serve as precursors to stronger earthquakes in the Santorini swarm, highlighting potential for early warning.

Contribution

The paper introduces the use of Seismic Regularity (dc) and SSD coefficients to predict stronger earthquakes by analyzing their characteristic changes prior to seismic events.

Findings

Down-up changes in dc precede stronger earthquakes.

Seismic process becomes more irregular before major events.

Seismic regularity metrics can serve as early warning indicators.

Abstract

We have been analyzing the ongoing seismic swarm in Santorini, Greece, with the Seismic Regularity (dc) and Seismic Strain Dynamics (SSD) coefficients, which quantify temporal changes in seismic process organization and strain energy release. Stronger earthquakes are preceded by characteristic down-up changes of dc. Such a change indicates an increase in the seismic process regularity followed by a fast transition to a more irregular and chaotic seismic regime.