Hydrodynamic Predictions for the Next Outburst of T Coronae Borealis: It will be the Brightest Classical or Recurrent Nova Ever Observed in X-rays

TL;DR

This paper uses hydrodynamic simulations to predict the next outburst of T Coronae Borealis, suggesting it could become the brightest X-ray nova ever observed and possibly evolve into a Type Ia supernova.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed hydrodynamic modeling of TCrB's next outburst, exploring conditions leading to ignition and potential supernova or collapse outcomes.

Findings

Next outburst predicted around 2025-2026

WD mass is increasing, approaching Chandrasekhar limit

Conditions for ignition and ejecta compositions are identified

Abstract

T Coronae Borealis (TCrB) is a recurrent nova (RN) with recorded outbursts in 1866, and 1946 and possible outbursts in 1217 and 1787. It is predicted to explode again in 2025 or 2026 based on multiple observational studies. The system consists of a massive (M$_{wd}$ $\gtrsim$ 1.35 M$_\odot$) white dwarf (WD) and a red giant (M3-M4 III). We have performed 1-D hydrodynamic simulations with NOVA to predict the behavior of the next outburst. These simulations consist of a range of mass accretion rates onto $\sim$1.35 M$_\odot$ WDs, designed to bound the conditions necessary to achieve ignition of an explosion after an $\approx$80 year inter-outburst period. We have used both carbon-oxygen and oxygen-neon initial compositions, in order to include the possible ejecta abundances to be measured in the observations of the next outburst. As the WD in the TCrB system is observed to be massive, theoretical predictions reported here imply that the WD is growing in mass as a consequence of the TNR. Therefore, the secular evolution of the WD may allow it to approach the Chandrasekhar limit and either explode as a Type Ia supernova or undergo accretion induced collapse, depending on its underlying composition. We have followed the evolution of just the WD, after removing the ejected matter from the surface layers. Our intent is to illuminate the mystery of the unique, second, maximum in the two well observed outbursts and we have found conditions that bracket the predictions.