Increasing competitiveness by imbalanced groups: The example of the 48-team FIFA World Cup

TL;DR

This paper proposes a novel tournament format with imbalanced groups for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to reduce stakeless matches, increase outcome uncertainty, and require fewer matches, thereby enhancing competitiveness.

Contribution

It introduces a new group structuring approach based on imbalanced groups and demonstrates its benefits through Monte Carlo simulations.

Findings

Reduces probability of stakeless matches by the strongest teams.

Increases uncertainty of match outcomes.

Requires fewer matches overall.

Abstract

A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort without incentives. This paper suggests a novel classification for stakeless matches based on their expected outcome: they are more costly if the indifferent team is more likely to win by playing honestly. Our approach is illustrated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first edition of the competition with 48 teams. We propose a novel format based on imbalanced groups, which substantially reduces the probability of stakeless matches played by the strongest teams according to Monte Carlo simulations. The new design also increases the uncertainty of match outcomes and requires fewer matches. Governing bodies in sports are encouraged to consider our innovative idea in order to enhance the competitiveness of their tournaments.