Predicting Insurance Penetration Rate in Ghana Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model

TL;DR

This paper models and forecasts Ghana's insurance penetration rate using ARIMA, revealing a suitable model and providing insights to inform strategies for increasing insurance coverage in the country.

Contribution

It applies ARIMA modeling to predict Ghana's insurance penetration rate, offering a novel forecast approach for policy planning.

Findings

ARIMA (3,1,0) is the best fit for Ghana's insurance data.

Forecasts can guide policy to increase insurance coverage.

The model highlights future penetration trends.

Abstract

Ghana records a low penetration of 1.05% compared to some of its African counterparts. For example South Africa, which has an insurance penetration rate of 17%, followed by Namibia which records 6.3%. This means, there is more room for improvement. More upsetting, with Ghana hovering around the 1% as at 2018, the rate works out to the small amount of Gross Domestic Product. This research seeks to model and forecast insurance penetration rate in Ghana using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average technique. The result indicates that ARIMA (3,1,0) is the appropriate model for insurance penetration in Ghana. Also, results from the forecast could serve as an advisory or the need to re-strategize as a country. Therefore, determining the future pattern of insurance penetration will lead to the remedies that will increase the number of insured in the future.